Greenhouse gas emissions: possible 55% reduction by 2030
Italy’s net emissions reduction by 2030 could be in line with the European Union’s 55% target.
This is highlighted in the ISPRA Report “Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Italy: Reduction Targets and Emission Scenarios”, which outlines the progress made by the country eleven years after the Paris Agreement and identifies the strategic levers needed to strengthen the decarbonization pathway.
The Report shows that the ETS (Emission Trading System), supported by the growth of renewable energy sources and industrial innovation, is already following a trajectory consistent with European objectives. Projections indicate an emissions reduction ranging from 60% to 69% in the energy and industrial sectors covered by the European carbon market.
ISPRA outlines two possible scenarios: the first is based on policies already in force, while the second is strengthened by the additional measures envisaged under the PNIEC and the PNRR. Both confirm the country’s concrete ability to continue along a path of progressive emissions reduction.
The Report also highlights the strategic role of sectors linked to mobility, building energy efficiency, and agriculture, where investments, technological innovation, and integrated policies could further accelerate the ecological transition and the achievement of European targets, with particular reference to the so-called Effort Sharing Regulation. In this regard, the Report — in line with the indications contained in the Economic and Financial Document (DEF) recently approved by the Government — outlines a situation of difficulty for both the first commitment period 2021–2025 and the 2026–2030 period. The transport and heating sectors are identified as the main challenges in achieving the –43.7% target by 2030.
The scenarios relating to the land use and forestry sector (LULUCF) are positive, as the sector is expected to meet the targets set for both the 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 periods, confirming the importance of natural capital in the national climate strategy.
“Eleven years after the Paris Agreement, the data show that Italy has the expertise, technologies, and tools needed to move forward decisively along the climate transition pathway,” stated Maria Alessandra Gallone. “The climate challenge also represents a major opportunity for innovation, competitiveness, and sustainable growth. The scenarios developed by ISPRA clearly indicate that strengthening the measures already launched, supporting local communities, and accompanying the transformation of production systems can enable the country to achieve European targets. In this process, data quality, continuous monitoring, and collaboration among institutions, research bodies, and businesses are fundamental elements for building effective, transparent, and future-oriented policies.”