National greenhouse gas emissions. Estimates for the third quarter of 2025: slightly up, but continuing to decline per unit of GDP.
For 2025, analyses indicate a slight increase in national greenhouse gas emissions: +0.3% compared to 2024, alongside GDP growth of 0.5%. This results in a 0.5% reduction in emission intensity (greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP) compared to the previous year.
The increase in emissions is mainly due to higher natural gas consumption for electricity generation (+2.5%), also linked to a reduction in hydropower production. As expected from the decarbonization strategy, there is a significant decrease in emissions related to coal consumption for energy production. Overall, emissions from energy production are estimated to increase by 1.2%.
Transport sector emissions are slightly declining (-0.5%), mainly due to reduced fuel consumption in maritime transport, while the decrease in diesel consumption for road transport is almost entirely offset by an increase in gasoline consumption.
For heating, a moderate increase in emissions is expected (+0.9%), once again due to greater use of natural gas. Industry also shows a slight increase (+0.3%) compared to the previous year.
In 2025, electricity demand (233,264 GWh) is lower than in the same period of 2024 (-1.2%) and was met 42.7% by Renewable Energy Sources, 42.2% by non-renewable sources, and the remaining 15.1% by net imports.
Regarding emissions from agriculture and waste management, no significant changes are expected compared to 2024.
Quarterly estimates of greenhouse gas emissions make it possible to regularly monitor the relationship between economic trends and environmental impact. Thanks to these measurements, it is possible to track the evolution of emissions over time and better understand the interconnections between the economy and the environment.